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SE Trader's avatar

Many Thanks for your article, very informative as usual and makes a good case but off my risk appetite scale for now! I will add it to my watchlist. Thanks

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Paul2148's avatar

Hi Boon. Great analysis and encouraged me to put this back on my watch list. There is a post about THG on Stocko Trade / Charts ideas thread which was looking at the trading setup and asked the question about potential catalysts.

I’ve linked your article in the thread with a recommendation to read it. This has generated a small discussion that may be worth checking out.

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Boon Koh's avatar

Thanks for sharing my post!

I've found the article on Stocko that you mentioned. I'm not a trader/chartist myself, but it looks like 30p might be an important level to see whether the persistent downtrend has been broken?

Also I note that this is very, very under the radar.... it hasn't made the top 8 viewed shares on Stocko today, despite the 10%+ rise and the AGM trading statement. So it looks like very few private investors are interested.

I think it'll be interesting to see what the 6 current shorters do. They might double down and push this back down to 25-26p. Or maybe they're hurting now and will unwind, and this could shoot up further.

I haven't had a chance yet to read through the broker updates today, if any. I do expect the newspapers - Times, Telegraph, Investors Chronicle - to publish something in the coming days.

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JAS's avatar

Superb analysis. This should hopefully act like a large portion of Protein on the share price. Thanks Boon.

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JAS's avatar

Looks like your prognosis was right Boon after today’s rise on the LSE. Another dose of Protein should shift the price forwards.

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Boon Koh's avatar

Fingers crossed! There's been a few false dawns in the past few weeks.... SP rising close to 10%, and then giving all the gains back. The 6 shorters are probably being very active here... they all have small amounts (c0.5%) shorts, so plenty of scope to ramp up their shorts before they hit internal risk management levels.

AGM trading update tomorrow!

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Bill Graham's avatar

Excellent analysis, as always! I would never have touched THG with somebody else's bargepole, but having read your previous comments I decided to take a look a couple of weeks back. You have hit the nail on the head: MyProtein is an essentially valuable company, and is worth more than the current valuation on its own. I was lucky enough to take a few at 24, but the yips got me, and I sold at 26. I had become an unwitting trader (and made enough for a decent night out!) Macro vagaries can still hit here, and the tight spread means traders will love this. As a consequence I can see progress being slower than we might hope, but it will be made in the longer term. Congratulations on a great spot!

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Boon Koh's avatar

There some really interesting price action here going on, when you look at the intraday trading. Several days in the past few weeks, where the prices have risen more than 5-10%, only to fall back down at close. Seems like a tug-of-war between bulls as well as bears.

I realised I'd forgotten to write about Frasers in my article! They've been accumulating, from below 4.8% in Jan25, to now 12.6% as of Jun25.

But I think there are also some big institutions trying to exit too. Balderton still has a 7% stake, and they probably want to get rid of their THG rump at some point. QIA too, having not taken part in either fundraising, and now at 6.8% stake.

Fingers crossed I hadn't caught a falling knife that continues on the way down đŸ˜‚

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Bill Graham's avatar

The FRAS holding is, I think, a bit of a red herring. It is hard to see a retailer that FRAS do not show interest in! They seems as ready to drop holdings as acquire them. Institutional offloading I see as an opportunity in this case. For most they are shedding what has been a bit of a disaster. I have seen this before, and the selling can become a bit indiscriminate. I think you have spotted value here.

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Boon Koh's avatar

True. Fraser have done some horrendous investments in numerous other fashion brands in the UK, all of which are underwater.... Mulberry, Boohoo to name a few...

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Jay Kay's avatar

Great article as usual

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