Many Thanks for your article, very informative as usual and makes a good case but off my risk appetite scale for now! I will add it to my watchlist. Thanks
Hi Boon. Great analysis and encouraged me to put this back on my watch list. There is a post about THG on Stocko Trade / Charts ideas thread which was looking at the trading setup and asked the question about potential catalysts.
I’ve linked your article in the thread with a recommendation to read it. This has generated a small discussion that may be worth checking out.
I've found the article on Stocko that you mentioned. I'm not a trader/chartist myself, but it looks like 30p might be an important level to see whether the persistent downtrend has been broken?
Also I note that this is very, very under the radar.... it hasn't made the top 8 viewed shares on Stocko today, despite the 10%+ rise and the AGM trading statement. So it looks like very few private investors are interested.
I think it'll be interesting to see what the 6 current shorters do. They might double down and push this back down to 25-26p. Or maybe they're hurting now and will unwind, and this could shoot up further.
I haven't had a chance yet to read through the broker updates today, if any. I do expect the newspapers - Times, Telegraph, Investors Chronicle - to publish something in the coming days.
I've had a brief look at Applied Nutrition who have less of a whey protein price reliance, circa 20%, but i like many avoided Thg as the business seemed too complicated, heavily shorted and with a ceo who wasn't up to the job; and was expecting a more patient Nasdaq type share reception such as to a new growing, unprofitable social media company.And received a good old lse welcome.Good luck with the shares, it looks like there's value in there, if they can sort out the main business.
Yeah, I had a tough time deciding to invest in THG, for some of the reasons you've mentioned. Its definitely got some major minuses, so one does have to be comfortable about the pluses to buy into it!
Fingers crossed! There's been a few false dawns in the past few weeks.... SP rising close to 10%, and then giving all the gains back. The 6 shorters are probably being very active here... they all have small amounts (c0.5%) shorts, so plenty of scope to ramp up their shorts before they hit internal risk management levels.
Excellent analysis, as always! I would never have touched THG with somebody else's bargepole, but having read your previous comments I decided to take a look a couple of weeks back. You have hit the nail on the head: MyProtein is an essentially valuable company, and is worth more than the current valuation on its own. I was lucky enough to take a few at 24, but the yips got me, and I sold at 26. I had become an unwitting trader (and made enough for a decent night out!) Macro vagaries can still hit here, and the tight spread means traders will love this. As a consequence I can see progress being slower than we might hope, but it will be made in the longer term. Congratulations on a great spot!
There some really interesting price action here going on, when you look at the intraday trading. Several days in the past few weeks, where the prices have risen more than 5-10%, only to fall back down at close. Seems like a tug-of-war between bulls as well as bears.
I realised I'd forgotten to write about Frasers in my article! They've been accumulating, from below 4.8% in Jan25, to now 12.6% as of Jun25.
But I think there are also some big institutions trying to exit too. Balderton still has a 7% stake, and they probably want to get rid of their THG rump at some point. QIA too, having not taken part in either fundraising, and now at 6.8% stake.
Fingers crossed I hadn't caught a falling knife that continues on the way down đŸ˜‚
The FRAS holding is, I think, a bit of a red herring. It is hard to see a retailer that FRAS do not show interest in! They seems as ready to drop holdings as acquire them. Institutional offloading I see as an opportunity in this case. For most they are shedding what has been a bit of a disaster. I have seen this before, and the selling can become a bit indiscriminate. I think you have spotted value here.
True. Fraser have done some horrendous investments in numerous other fashion brands in the UK, all of which are underwater.... Mulberry, Boohoo to name a few...
Many Thanks for your article, very informative as usual and makes a good case but off my risk appetite scale for now! I will add it to my watchlist. Thanks
Hi Boon. Great analysis and encouraged me to put this back on my watch list. There is a post about THG on Stocko Trade / Charts ideas thread which was looking at the trading setup and asked the question about potential catalysts.
I’ve linked your article in the thread with a recommendation to read it. This has generated a small discussion that may be worth checking out.
Thanks for sharing my post!
I've found the article on Stocko that you mentioned. I'm not a trader/chartist myself, but it looks like 30p might be an important level to see whether the persistent downtrend has been broken?
Also I note that this is very, very under the radar.... it hasn't made the top 8 viewed shares on Stocko today, despite the 10%+ rise and the AGM trading statement. So it looks like very few private investors are interested.
I think it'll be interesting to see what the 6 current shorters do. They might double down and push this back down to 25-26p. Or maybe they're hurting now and will unwind, and this could shoot up further.
I haven't had a chance yet to read through the broker updates today, if any. I do expect the newspapers - Times, Telegraph, Investors Chronicle - to publish something in the coming days.
Superb analysis. This should hopefully act like a large portion of Protein on the share price. Thanks Boon.
I've had a brief look at Applied Nutrition who have less of a whey protein price reliance, circa 20%, but i like many avoided Thg as the business seemed too complicated, heavily shorted and with a ceo who wasn't up to the job; and was expecting a more patient Nasdaq type share reception such as to a new growing, unprofitable social media company.And received a good old lse welcome.Good luck with the shares, it looks like there's value in there, if they can sort out the main business.
Yeah, I had a tough time deciding to invest in THG, for some of the reasons you've mentioned. Its definitely got some major minuses, so one does have to be comfortable about the pluses to buy into it!
Looks like your prognosis was right Boon after today’s rise on the LSE. Another dose of Protein should shift the price forwards.
Fingers crossed! There's been a few false dawns in the past few weeks.... SP rising close to 10%, and then giving all the gains back. The 6 shorters are probably being very active here... they all have small amounts (c0.5%) shorts, so plenty of scope to ramp up their shorts before they hit internal risk management levels.
AGM trading update tomorrow!
Excellent analysis, as always! I would never have touched THG with somebody else's bargepole, but having read your previous comments I decided to take a look a couple of weeks back. You have hit the nail on the head: MyProtein is an essentially valuable company, and is worth more than the current valuation on its own. I was lucky enough to take a few at 24, but the yips got me, and I sold at 26. I had become an unwitting trader (and made enough for a decent night out!) Macro vagaries can still hit here, and the tight spread means traders will love this. As a consequence I can see progress being slower than we might hope, but it will be made in the longer term. Congratulations on a great spot!
There some really interesting price action here going on, when you look at the intraday trading. Several days in the past few weeks, where the prices have risen more than 5-10%, only to fall back down at close. Seems like a tug-of-war between bulls as well as bears.
I realised I'd forgotten to write about Frasers in my article! They've been accumulating, from below 4.8% in Jan25, to now 12.6% as of Jun25.
But I think there are also some big institutions trying to exit too. Balderton still has a 7% stake, and they probably want to get rid of their THG rump at some point. QIA too, having not taken part in either fundraising, and now at 6.8% stake.
Fingers crossed I hadn't caught a falling knife that continues on the way down đŸ˜‚
The FRAS holding is, I think, a bit of a red herring. It is hard to see a retailer that FRAS do not show interest in! They seems as ready to drop holdings as acquire them. Institutional offloading I see as an opportunity in this case. For most they are shedding what has been a bit of a disaster. I have seen this before, and the selling can become a bit indiscriminate. I think you have spotted value here.
True. Fraser have done some horrendous investments in numerous other fashion brands in the UK, all of which are underwater.... Mulberry, Boohoo to name a few...
Great article as usual